发表 何清涟 于 七月 13, 2011
He Qing Lian released on July 13, 2011 recently, Beijing and let the world see this country very chaotic: the national people's Congress to increase the personal income tax from $ 2000 to $ 3,500 after, emerging middle class suddenly shrunk up to as much as 300 million or 400 million to 24 million people. According to the price level in China, $ 3,500 in Beijing, Shanghai, Guangzhou, Shenzhen and other places just enough survival remains low, in the provincial capital city is also very tense. Therefore, this result means that the 98% of the Chinese remained poor. This picture and prior to this world is soon caught up in a discussion of China as the world's second-largest economy, by 2015 over United States that one scene of prosperity and abundance in China simply as ice fire two days.
Wealth and poverty, the two main landscape painter is the Chinese Government, people should trust a site which is true?
Statistics of "authenticity"
After raising taxation starting from $ 2000 to $ 3,500, tax number from about 84 million people reduced to approximately 24 million people. Seriously and interpreting the results, meaning "rich" about 60 million people in China's monthly income is between $ 2000~3500 and 93.8% population in addition to the 150 million level of consumption in the US $ 1 a day (6 million) following outside of the poor, the majority of people monthly income at $ 600 – $ 600 is between $ ~2000 to the Chinese Government set for the rural poor population of the low gold.
This figure with China in Africa and save the show when economic prosperity in Europe did not match. But also with several sets of figures are contradictory: first with the national "huangliang" disproportionate to the number of dependents. National supported by financial organs of 40 million plus number of staff, has more than one estimate, roughly between 70 million ~8500 of millions of people, the less the 24 million people, even the most stable income in China, give small groups of people envy the most person's monthly income to $ 3,500. Second, with 2010 as much as $ 29,748 (3,650 dollars) per capita GDP of disproportionate, rough estimates of labor age population of two-thirds, around 900 million, with revenues of more than 870 million people are below the level of per capita GDP, only extremely unfair distribution of wealth in this country.
"Middle class" number maze
Most important is that the revenue of $ 3,500 per month (about US $ 650) population of 24 million people, a rather lively study areas of the world and media topics--the "middle class continued to grow in China, the China-formed olive society" about leaking gas.
Here and not on the data of those expectations a few years earlier, as United States well-known McCarthy Global Institute (MGI) 2006 forecast 2010 China's middle class will be up to 290 million people. Only data on China in the past two years about the middle class.
In August 2010, the Asian Development Bank issued a report in the Asian and Pacific region in 2010 report on key indicators, for lower consumption of 2 dollars a day, plus the World Bank's "global middle class" $ 20 daily consumption limit, in this context, it becomes "Asian middle class". According to this standard, China's middle class size of 817 million. However, envisioned the Chinese middle class was designated as the "bottom" "middle" "high-rise" three categories. That China's "middle class" 303 million were in the bottom middle-class, State of the economy slightly stronger than poor people, once encounter any major crisis, they can easily slip back into poverty. Data in this report are popular questions in China, because even if the underlying will be that more than 300 million middle-class removed, China still has more than 500 million more than real middle class that is consistent. So local media saying the Chinese "middle."
Probably too on a number of middle class in China and the standard is not enough chaos, United States by Forbes magazine in Asia announced China had issued more than 800 million three months after the middle class is also fun, made on the definition of China's middle needs a hard, that is, income of 10,000 US $ ~6 million. Article said, take this as a standard, 2010 Chinese middle class is more than more than 300 million, larger than the United States population.
Official scholars of the Chinese Government and Chinese how many middle class? In January 2005, the State Statistics Bureau announced an investigation concluded that 60,000 RMB ~50 million urban middle-income groups in China is to define the family income (calculated in average household population of three people) standard. Land in 2009, Chinese Academy of social sciences honors Academy said: China has 22-23% of the total population of the middle class, and will grow at an annual rate of 1%. According to this calculation, at this point at least 350 million people into the ranks of the middle class in China, annual revenue of more than 60,000.
Between poverty and prosperity in China uncertain why?
But in the Chinese Government is prepared to verify while preparing the individual income tax on personal income, 3~4 billion of annual revenue of $ 60,000 to 500,000 middle class suddenly disappeared, monthly income of over $ 3,500 Chinese only 24 million people. Total GDP of China claims world's second, among the total population, actually only 2% people was not able to bear the Honorable individual income taxpayers duties, one of the few who became a pillar of consumption of the world luxury market-these people are really "go".
Only a rough description of the following three explanations to why this happens.
First, the Chinese Government on the phenomena of unequal distribution of income in the past seriously underestimated, extremely exaggerated the number of middle class in China. And foreign research institutions is fog, data is nothing more than follow China official announced by intonation of fun.
Second, there is a lot of grey economy in China and gray income. Since it is a "grey", the money will be leakage Commission and, of course, does not appear in the national income that can be cured in the Sun on the table. On China present price levels, monthly income of only $ 3,500 in secondary cities enough to survive. Judging from the real purchasing power, plus the large number of gray income to support the purchasing power of China's urban population.
Three of China's wealth is concentrated in very few hands, wealth far beyond outsiders guessing the number of these people. This can be seen from the following figures: 2010 luxury consumption totalled US $ 10.7 billion in mainland China, one-fourth of the total share of global luxury goods consumption. But according to hurun statistics, 2010 millions of Regal 960,000 people in China, if this Regal Group with millions of dollars-level subjects, its consumption is difficult to turn China into a global luxury consumption market of second look, and attracted to Chinese global luxury brand of ultra-one-third shop.
It seems that China is still "statisticians of hell" to ascertain the truth of any thing, takes a great effort.